Calibration curves for remembering, knowing, and guessing

Quiet April here on the blog -- I spent most of the month running subjects and working on another project I can't talk too much about yet. In the meantime, though, I'm preparing for the Show Me Mini Mental Life Conference, a small biannual (that means once every two years, right, or is that "biennial") conference jointly hosted by Washington University and Mizzou a bit down I-64. I'm giving a talk on some of my dissertation data, which I've written about in other places (Project 15).

As you might know, my dissertation research is interested in confidence-accuracy differences as a function of remembering, knowing, and guessing. What we can do is plot calibration curves for the accuracy of responses given while in each qualitative state of remembering. Here's the figure:

Calibration curves

As the figure shows, one type of response seems to pull apart from the rest. Namely, we see that remember responses given with high (e.g., 80-100) confidence appear to be significantly more accurate, on average, than remember responses given with lower confidence as well as any know or guess responses. Thus, the real-world implication is that if I'm sure I remember something, and can remember specific details about that memory (rather than a gut feeling or hunch that it happened), it's likely that the memory is an accurate one.


Last built: Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 3:03 PM

By Andy DeSoto, Monday, May 5, 2014 at 2:28 PM. Everything's an interaction.