All the cool kids are doing it (i.e., my three favorite blogs: ReadWriteWeb, the Inquisitr, and LouisGray.com), so I’m going to cast my own perspective on what we’ll see in the world of social media over the next twelve months. I’ve never done a set of predictions before, so I’m eager to look back at this list at the beginning of 2010 and see how things evolved. Here we go:
- A high profile crime (or intended crime) will renew focus on social media’s privacy controls. Most people that regularly run in social media circles are generally unafraid of sharing sensitive information with the Web. Whether it’s family photos, geocoordinates of private locations, or something as simple as a telephone number, people are becoming more and more open each day (as opposed to the more private, anonymous stylings of the early 00’s). I predict that someone sharing too much information online will lead to a serious event that will cause social circles to reconsider how much information individuals openly share on the Internet.
- Large social sites will continue to grow as others peter out. Today’s most popular social sites (especially Facebook) have met resounding success with Internet users across the globe. Unfortunately, as people’s time becomes more and more precious, they’ll start spending more time on high-return, high population networks like Facebook in lieu of smaller networks.
- Flickr will find itself in serious trouble. Flickr, everyone’s favorite photo sharing site, is going to go through some hard times directly related to Yahoo’s financial and corporate troubles. We’re going to see a reduction in features, perhaps, or caps on uploads, etc. for even Pro-level users. It won’t be pretty.
- FriendFeed will die. Everyone else seems to be swearing that FriendFeed is the site to watch, so I’m going to be the one that comes out and says it: there won’t be a FriendFeed in 2010– at least, not as we know it today. Its shortcomings will lead users to alternatives that are simpler to sort out. The only remaining FriendFeed users will be those that use it as merely a social bridge.
- Universal blog commenting services will be unified under WordPress. Automattic’s a smart group and it won’t let Disqus, IntenseDebate, and other companies have the better commenting features. WordPress will pick one, acquire it, and the others will disappear. My bet is on Disqus. Edit: I’m told by Amber on Friendfeed that Automattic chose Intense Debate a few months ago. Is this just for WordPress hosted blogs?
- Facebook Connect will take off. The minute someone figures out a way to easily widgetize blogs, personal websites, and other Web locations with Facebook Connect, use of the service will skyrocket. Seriously– if you capitalize on this now, I bet you’ll make a killing.
- Facebook will be the first company to succeed in social mobile networking. Expect to be able to locate your buddies within Facebook on a map, courtesy of one of Facebook’s own applications. As everything goes mobile and iPod Touches and iPhones increase in popularity, as they should, all your friends will be even more trackable. Expect a huge furor over this, of course (maybe regarding #1?), but the community will deal, just as it’s done with the Mini-Feed and the site redesign. Fledgling social mobile networks (e.g., Loopt) will die.
- The iPhone will continue to be the gadget of 2009. Anyone who’s used one knows it’s a remarkable device. It’s going to get even better. I can’t say whether or not a new model will be released (it’s probably not even in Apple’s best interests), but the combination of camera, GPS and slick user interface will lead us straight into 2010. (Unless these weird large-format iPod Touch rumors turn out to be true; who knows what that would mean!)
- SixApart will continue to suck. Messing up LiveJournal and Pownce were just the beginning. SixApart is going to make a lot more people angry.
- Social networks will see a decline in usage, in general. Individuals will come to realize that online social networking, on its lonesome, is truly not a social activity. Only by tapping into real-world relationships will these networks grow.
Agree or disagree with these? Please share!
If you enjoyed this, you might want to read my social media wishlist for 2009– what I’d like to see, not what I expect to!
- Five things I want to see in social media in 2009 Here are five things I think would contribute to social media's value for myself and others....
- My social media workflow My social media habits can be basically broken down into three parts: a beginning of the day, catch-up phase, a...
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7 Comments
So are you predicting FriendFeed will die because nobody else has yet, or because you truly believe that it will die?
That’s a good question, Louis, and I’ll be honest, a bit of both, but I truthfully believe that FriendFeed hasn’t found the formula it needs for mainstream success (perhaps I ought to say ‘lack of growth,’ not ‘death’). I’ve tried SO hard to like the service, make it work for me, and it’s just not happening.
The difficulty is, for me, that it meshes people’s professional and personal lives together such that it’s impossible to sort them apart again. I don’t like to see your blog posts, for instance, right next to the photos of your beautiful kids– I’m interested in both those pieces of content, but it’s jarring having them next to each other.
It’s just too complicated. I don’t mean it as a slight to any of the great FriendFeed developers– they’ve made a very interesting product– but I don’t feel that the level of hype, even a year later, is commensurate with the true value of the service.
I of course see your opinion. I’ve been fairly transparent in my belief the service could improve quite a bit, especially for new users. I think others might also be frustrated with not seeing much activity on their own feeds vs. more visible people, and turn away. There’s work to do to make it less complicated, absolutely.
But I don’t think they go away in 2009. I think they may have to decide what they want to be when they grow up, and how they want to get revenue. It’s likely we’ve only seen the beginning.
Great post.
The Crime bullet is absolutely right. It’s strange how networks like Facebook and LinkedIn change their setup for privacy every now and then. Facebook was a lot more closed a year ago compared to now. Peoples understanding of what they actually do online is quite low and I think we’ll see the big problems once older people start using social networks for real.
I don’t agree with you on the Friendfeed thoughts. I do however think Friendfeed needs to build a new user interface to make people find the hidden gems.
I’ve published my list here: http://www.ronnestam.com/2008/12/29/brand-and-communication-predictions-for-2009-by-johan-ronnestam/
I agree with this statement, “I truthfully believe that FriendFeed hasn’t found the formula it needs for mainstream success” only because I am teaching a non-internet user community to use a friendfeed room & twitter interface to create local content for a small village of active community people. These guys are older than 55. With the average about 67.
But after a little training they are adopting it slowly and becoming online publishers for the first time.
I believe that FF needs to adapt and improve use ability issues. The group that I teach find it difficult, the don’t know what’s going on. For example the arrow that you need to click on to show more photos is not clear to non internet users. The Join This Room is not clear. These guys come to the room they read but they cannot comment because they don’t know where to start. People don’t know how to use Friendfeed.
Until FF interface becomes simple for first time users it will be a geeky tool.
May FF get it right because it is amazing. And (BTW) you can/should split your family and your professional businesses using rooms. All the tools are there. I have many rooms for all my (chameleon) angles.
FF Rooms may be the most underestimate tool on FF
I am not sure that I understand point 10. Or rather the motivation for it.
Have fun
Johan Horak
With everyone freaking out about the economy (thus compounding the problem, but I digress) I think money spent on advertising as a market will be cut in ‘09 leading to a general trend of decrease in expansion, and maybe even the end of a few notable sites.
^^That might have been a run on sentence.
Man, I hope you’re right about the Grand Unification of the blogging commenting systems. I had a hard time choosing between Disqus and IntenseDebate a while ago. I chose Disqus, but I always feel like I’m missing out on sharing content with people who use IntenseDebate and other services.
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