Ten social media predictions for 2009

All the cool kids are doing it (i.e., my three favorite blogs: ReadWriteWeb, the Inquisitr, and LouisGray.com), so I’m going to cast my own perspective on what we’ll see in the world of social media over the next twelve months.  I’ve never done a set of predictions before, so I’m eager to look back at this list at the beginning of 2010 and see how things evolved.  Here we go:

1. A high profile crime (or intended crime) will renew focus on social media’s privacy controls.  Most people that regularly run in social media circles are generally unafraid of sharing sensitive information with the Web.  Whether it’s family photos, geocoordinates of private locations, or something as simple as a telephone number, people are becoming more and more open each day (as opposed to the more private, anonymous stylings of the early 00′s).  I predict that someone sharing too much information online will lead to a serious event that will cause social circles to reconsider how much information individuals openly share on the Internet.
2. Large social sites will continue to grow as others peter out.  Today’s most popular social sites (especially Facebook) have met resounding success with Internet users across the globe.  Unfortunately, as people’s time becomes more and more precious, they’ll start spending more time on high-return, high population networks like Facebook in lieu of smaller networks.
3. Flickr will find itself in serious trouble.  Flickr, everyone’s favorite photo sharing site, is going to go through some hard times directly related to Yahoo’s financial and corporate troubles.  We’re going to see a reduction in features, perhaps, or caps on uploads, etc. for even Pro-level users.  It won’t be pretty.
4. FriendFeed will die.  Everyone else seems to be swearing that FriendFeed is the site to watch, so I’m going to be the one that comes out and says it: there won’t be a FriendFeed in 2010– at least, not as we know it today.  Its shortcomings will lead users to alternatives that are simpler to sort out.  The only remaining FriendFeed users will be those that use it as merely a social bridge.
5. Universal blog commenting services will be unified under WordPress.  Automattic’s a smart group and it won’t let Disqus, IntenseDebate, and other companies have the better commenting features.  WordPress will pick one, acquire it, and the others will disappear.  My bet is on Disqus.  Edit: I’m told by Amber on Friendfeed that Automattic chose Intense Debate a few months ago.  Is this just for WordPress hosted blogs?
6. Facebook Connect will take off.  The minute someone figures out a way to easily widgetize blogs, personal websites, and other Web locations with Facebook Connect, use of the service will skyrocket.  Seriously– if you capitalize on this now, I bet you’ll make a killing.
7. Facebook will be the first company to succeed in social mobile networking.  Expect to be able to locate your buddies within Facebook on a map, courtesy of one of Facebook’s own applications.  As everything goes mobile and iPod Touches and iPhones increase in popularity, as they should, all your friends will be even more trackable.  Expect a huge furor over this, of course (maybe regarding #1?), but the community will deal, just as it’s done with the Mini-Feed and the site redesign.  Fledgling social mobile networks (e.g., Loopt) will die.
8. The iPhone will continue to be the gadget of 2009.  Anyone who’s used one knows it’s a remarkable device.  It’s going to get even better.  I can’t say whether or not a new model will be released (it’s probably not even in Apple’s best interests), but the combination of camera, GPS and slick user interface will lead us straight into 2010.  (Unless these weird large-format iPod Touch rumors turn out to be true; who knows what that would mean!)
9. SixApart will continue to suck.  Messing up LiveJournal and Pownce were just the beginning.  SixApart is going to make a lot more people angry.
10. Social networks will see a decline in usage, in general.  Individuals will come to realize that online social networking, on its lonesome, is truly not a social activity.  Only by tapping into real-world relationships will these networks grow. 

Agree or disagree with these?  Please share!

If you enjoyed this, you might want to read my social media wishlist for 2009– what I’d like to see, not what I expect to!

1. Why follow people you don’t know on social networking sites? I am curious to hear why you think it's a good idea to follow or not follow internet contacts, whether...
2. Social network pruning heuristic #2: Eliminate cross-posters Fortunately, the solution is simple, albeit time-consuming: take a few minutes to unfollow any individuals that repeatedly send the exact...
3. Barriers to the social mobile web This past Friday, I was finally able to get Apple to take my entire summer's savings for an iPhone. After...

Tagged as: 2009, apple, disqus, facebook, facebook connect, flickr, friendfeed, iphone, livejournal, pownce, predictions, privacy, sixapart, wordpress